Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa18b…563e crypto 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,174 (-17%) realized −$1,183 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%325W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day199.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$243
14 days−$331
30 days−$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$305
other 0% −$12
economics 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 441 -10.7% -19.2% 48% 37% -14.4%
≤30d 666 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 39% -14.0%
≤90d 666 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 39% -14.0%
all 666 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 39% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 39% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 31% -22.2%
15% -30.7% 27% -29.7%
20% -37.5% 23% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1,183
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses325 / 341
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)666 / 669
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day199.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+350%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-44%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+350%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Under 0¢ 0¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+350%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $114 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.55 · official $26.55 (match) · 3500 history records