Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa18a…e74f other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$44
sports 24% −$23
culture 5% −$6
politics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage131d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $826 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $407 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $424 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $736 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $256 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $164 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $381 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $418 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $218 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $239 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $248 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $463 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $777 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $424 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 6h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 8h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 10h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 11h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 13h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 17h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 26h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 28h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 29h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 31h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $60 32h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 40h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 44h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 46h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1407 history records