Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa18a…ebdc politics 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$307 (+16%) realized +$343 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$309
other 28% −$35
world 20% +$34
tech 12% +$30
sports 3% −$17
culture 2% −$32
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -31.6% -38.2% 25% 25% -39.2%
≤30d 11 -4.9% -13.9% 36% 36% -23.2%
≤90d 34 -1.7% -11.1% 26% 26% -6.4%
all 49 +23.0% +11.3% 43% 41% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 41% +15.9%
10% +0.7% 39% +4.8%
15% -9.1% 37% -5.3%
20% -18.0% 27% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$13 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$779
Realized+$343
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Open positions28
Markets (closed)49 / 77
History coverage197d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 55¢ $155 $146 −$9 (-6%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $125 $128 +$3 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $70 $123 +$53 (+76%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $70 $58 −$12 (-18%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-10%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes 20¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-55%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Waymo IPO before 2027? Yes 15¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 19 $50 −$34 -68%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 19 $110 −$11 -10%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 01 $25 +$46 +186%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 26 $10 −$10 -92%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 −$3 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $25 −$10 -40%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? May 20 $5 +$2 +40%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? May 18 $45 −$37 -83%
Blue tsunami in 2026? May 09 $20 +$8 +39%
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more? Apr 22 $25 +$13 +51%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Apr 22 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 21 $5 −$4 -84%
Revolut IPO before 2027? Apr 21 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Apr 15 $15 −$10 -69%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 15 $20 −$17 -87%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 15 $15 −$10 -69%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 15 $15 +$58 +386%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 15 $20 +$180 +900%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 23 $50 −$17 -33%
Another US bank failure by March 31? Mar 19 $10 −$2 -25%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 19 $20 +$12 +61%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Mar 17 $80 +$29 +36%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 17 $10 +$11 +111%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $35 +$33 +93%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $25 +$54 +217%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 28 $25 +$68 +273%
Will all of Trump's children attend the State of the Union? Feb 27 $5 +$21 +426%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 23 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Feb 03 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 03 $50 +$48 +95%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $1 $0 +9%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $155 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes $16 1h
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $22 1h
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 52¢ $48 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 1h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 18d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 18d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 18d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $3 24d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $7 24d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 24d
Trump declares election interference national emergency? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 24d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 27d
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 29d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 32d
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? SELL Yes $8 32d
Blue tsunami in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 41d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY Yes $5 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $778.60 · official $775.67 (match) · 362 history records