Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa188…3fcc sports 1250 markets active 0h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,519 (-5%) realized −$10,522 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%728W / 521L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days−$272
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$9,459
other 2% −$561
crypto 1% −$487
politics 0% +$26
world 0% +$51
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 83% +6.3%
≤30d 79 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 46% -13.8%
≤90d 79 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 46% -13.8%
all 1249 -4.1% -13.3% 58% 45% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -14.3%
10% -21.6% 35% -22.5%
15% -29.1% 27% -30.0%
20% -36.1% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$97 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10,522
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses728 / 521
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1249 / 1250
History coverage562d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 83¢ 90¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $25 +$5 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $24 +$2 +7%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $21 +$2 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $16 +$6 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $14 +$2 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $11 +$3 +26%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$14 +56%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $22 +$2 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $25 −$22 -87%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $23 +$2 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $13 +$10 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $85 −$61 -72%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$35 +89%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $200 −$193 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$42 +21%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $225 +$4 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $200 +$25 +12%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $158 +$70 +44%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $132 +$26 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $100 +$32 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $53 +$43 +82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$40 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$28 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$3 -23%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $14 −$6 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $30 15m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $30 32m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $25 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $25 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $24 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $24 21h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $21 22h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $21 22h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 73¢ $16 23h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $16 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $14 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $14 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 79¢ $11 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $39 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $39 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $25 8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $22 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 7¢ $3 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $25 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $25 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $23 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $23 10d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $13 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $13 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 84¢ $11 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 9¢ $10 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 11¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.53 · official $32.53 (match) · 3279 history records