Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa187…26d5 politics 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$105 (+1%) realized +$118 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate66%37W / 19L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$5
world 18% +$85
politics 18% −$2
other 16% +$21
tech 15% −$11
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% −$9
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 6 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 17% -8.2%
≤90d 27 +4.7% -5.3% 78% 33% -8.6%
all 56 +4.6% -5.4% 66% 23% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 23% -8.6%
10% -14.4% 12% -17.3%
15% -22.7% 7% -25.3%
20% -30.3% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$1,679
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses37 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage216d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1,657 $1,644 −$13 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 20 $81 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,659 +$57 +3%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? May 30 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,646 −$4 -0%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 29 $23 +$2 +11%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 29 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $1,711 +$10 +1%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,700 −$3 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $1,700 +$7 +0%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? May 02 $13 +$1 +10%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 02 $12 +$4 +30%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third May 02 $16 +$3 +18%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Apr 18 $11 −$10 -91%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 18 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round Apr 18 $21 $0 +2%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 18 $21 +$6 +28%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 04 $17 −$9 -51%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 02 $24 +$3 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $17 +$2 +15%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Mar 24 $23 +$1 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 24 $22 +$3 +15%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Mar 24 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026? Mar 05 $19 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026? Feb 25 $11 +$9 +81%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 25 $16 +$5 +28%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 19 $21 −$5 -23%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026? Feb 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? Feb 06 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $35 +$1 +3%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 30 $8 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 30 $103 +$9 +9%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $37 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $34 −$6 -17%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Dec 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,666 1h
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $81 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,659 20d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $11 20d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,642 21d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 32d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? BUY No 99¢ $46 32d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,646 32d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,711 43d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,698 43d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 90¢ $23 46d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,700 46d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 94¢ $14 49d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 49d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,700 49d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY No 77¢ $12 62d
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third BUY Yes 85¢ $16 62d
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis SELL Yes 8¢ $1 62d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $18 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round SELL No 100¢ $21 62d
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl SELL Yes 100¢ $27 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round BUY No 98¢ $21 68d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 69d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 69d
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl BUY Yes 78¢ $21 76d
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 76d
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis BUY Yes 85¢ $11 78d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $18 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,678.93 · official $1,678.93 (match) · 162 history records