Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa184…eaa4 world 55 markets active 2d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$935 (-11%) realized −$1,000 · open +$65
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$679
14 days−$682
30 days−$1,283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$57
other 23% −$886
sports 17% −$214
tech 3% +$90
politics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.0% -39.4% 33% 17% -59.4%
≤30d 26 -26.2% -33.2% 23% 15% -37.1%
≤90d 45 -19.3% -27.0% 31% 22% -19.7%
all 52 -17.8% -25.6% 35% 27% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 27% -19.3%
10% -32.8% 23% -27.1%
15% -39.3% 15% -34.1%
20% -45.2% 8% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$62 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$1,000
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage158d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 54¢ 74¢ $250 $340 +$90 (+36%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 18¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 −$7 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $200 +$19 +10%
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 04 $80 −$7 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 02 $143 −$43 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $200 −$187 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $527 −$11 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $655 −$224 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? May 26 $193 −$11 -6%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? May 24 $74 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 24 $100 −$66 -66%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $120 +$35 +29%
Valorant: Fnatic vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? May 21 $2 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 19 $17 −$3 -16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $100 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Hannover 96 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga May 17 $255 −$22 -8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $537 +$583 +108%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $71 −$32 -45%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 16 $153 −$5 -3%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $200 −$131 -66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $100 −$40 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $500 −$231 -46%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 02 $838 +$33 +4%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $100 +$27 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $500 +$69 +14%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $100 +$49 +49%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 08 $200 +$59 +30%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $250 +$74 +30%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $20 −$15 -76%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Mar 31 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Mar 29 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Feb 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $100 +$45 +45%
Bills vs. Broncos Feb 06 $40 +$35 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 91¢ $294 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $219 6d
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 73¢ $73 13d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $255 13d
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 80¢ $80 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 13d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 39¢ $8 15d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 86¢ $17 15d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $8 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL Yes $13 16d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 39¢ $40 16d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 68¢ $3 17d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 69¢ $5 17d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 69¢ $2 17d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 69¢ $62 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $100 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.08 · official $350.08 (match) · 195 history records