Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa182…3106 sports 1279 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,150 (-1%) realized −$1,169 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%822W / 456L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$1,025est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$30
14 days−$218
30 days−$1,710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,572
other 2% +$318
crypto 2% −$187
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -4.6% -13.7% 65% 49% -11.9%
≤30d 354 -6.0% -15.0% 63% 51% -16.1%
≤90d 1024 -3.9% -13.0% 62% 55% -11.9%
all 1278 -3.1% -12.3% 64% 55% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 55% -11.8%
10% -20.7% 40% -20.2%
15% -28.4% 27% -27.9%
20% -35.4% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$65 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$1,169
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses822 / 456
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$1,025
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1278 / 1279
History coverage135d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Gdansk: Gina Feistel vs Anastasiya Sobolieva Anastasiya Sobolieva 77¢ 90¢ $118 $137 +$19 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$1 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$5 -31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$22 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$5 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$13 -52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$13 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$7 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $36 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$6 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $56 +$5 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $16 −$16 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $18 +$14 +76%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $19 −$19 -99%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $17 +$7 +40%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $8 +$5 +57%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $9 −$7 -79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $31 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +30%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $24 +$7 +29%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 26 $6 −$6 -99%
ITF Asuncion: Luciana Moyano vs Camila Romero Jun 26 $7 +$3 +36%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva Jun 26 $26 +$5 +17%
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $15 −$9 -57%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari Jun 26 $19 +$4 +18%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov Jun 26 $20 +$3 +15%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $16 −$12 -77%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 26 $14 +$7 +52%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $19 +$5 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $19 +$5 +24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $13 −$11 -83%
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek Jun 26 $19 +$13 +69%
ITF Wuning: Dong Ju Kim vs Max Purcell Jun 26 $19 +$2 +9%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs JiaYi Wang Jun 26 $16 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Gdansk: Gina Feistel vs Anastasiya Sobolieva BUY Anastasiya Sobolieva 78¢ $99 36m
ITF Gdansk: Gina Feistel vs Anastasiya Sobolieva BUY Anastasiya Sobolieva 75¢ $20 43m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 44m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 46m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 47m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 47m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 47m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $4 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.83 · official $136.83 (match) · 2712 history records