Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa17d…d8a5 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%37W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$2
politics 11% $0
other 8% $0
tech 8% $0
weather 6% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 48 -1.8% -11.2% 77% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses37 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage501d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $27 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 24 $18 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $13 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 20 $16 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Feb 20 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 61d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 92d
Will Chainlink reach $18 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 92d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 149d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 182d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $28 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 96¢ $22 243d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 273d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 302d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $24 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 362d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 363d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? BUY No 63¢ $9 423d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 100¢ $8 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.66 · official $37.66 (match) · 104 history records