Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa17d…7941 crypto 589 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (213 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+1%) realized +$101 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate49%289W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day213.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$36
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (213 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 445 +1.2% -8.5% 52% 19% -9.8%
≤30d 588 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 20% -9.9%
≤90d 588 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 20% -9.9%
all 588 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 20% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover213.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 20% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 11% -18.5%
15% -24.7% 8% -26.4%
20% -32.1% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses289 / 299
Open positions1
Markets (closed)588 / 589
History coverage10d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day213.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 53¢ 68¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 43¢ 32¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $23 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $9 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $17 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.50 · official $18.86 (match) · 2608 history records