Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa178…1666 crypto 1989 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$364 (-2%) realized −$308 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate69%1510W / 670L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$592
7 days−$578
14 days−$606
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$9
other 6% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 472 -55.0% -59.3% 36% 24% -57.8%
≤30d 1082 -21.6% -29.1% 62% 42% -16.0%
≤90d 2180 -10.8% -19.3% 69% 49% -12.2%
all 2180 -10.8% -19.3% 69% 49% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 49% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 27% -20.6%
15% -34.1% 17% -28.3%
20% -40.5% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1510 / 670
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2180 / 1989
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $58 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $75 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 18h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 19h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 21h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 21h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.68 · official $3.68 (match) · 3500 history records