Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa178…2112 weather 611 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,105 (+2%) realized +$7,100 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate87%528W / 81L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$4,077
politics 15% +$2,859
economics 6% +$1,659
world 4% +$166
other 4% −$3,108
crypto 2% +$573
culture 0% −$69
sports 0% +$31
tech 0% −$21
finance 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 34 -1.1% -10.6% 85% 9% -19.0%
≤90d 547 +6.5% -3.7% 87% 24% -10.4%
all 609 +5.6% -4.5% 87% 23% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 23% -9.9%
10% -13.6% 17% -18.5%
15% ← realistic here -22.0% 12% -26.4%
20% -29.6% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,103) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$291 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$7,100
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses528 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)609 / 611
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$771
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $194 $197 +$3 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $134 $136 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $164 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $204 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May May 27 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 27? May 27 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 26 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 25? May 25 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 25 $22 +$10 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May May 25 $536 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 24? May 25 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 25? May 24 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 24 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 24? May 24 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $343 −$343 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? May 24 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 23 $440 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 23? May 23 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 23? May 23 $1,002 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23? May 23 $33 −$32 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 22 $632 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $6 +$15 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 21? May 21 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 21 $251 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 21? May 21 $598 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or higher on May 20? May 21 $1,281 +$13 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on May 17? May 21 $1,651 +$349 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May May 21 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 17? May 21 $2,078 −$78 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 18? May 20 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 20? May 20 $639 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $281 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma May 17 $446 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 17? May 17 $786 −$786 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 1 May 17 $1,259 −$1,259 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 17? May 17 $1,014 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 17? May 17 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 17? May 17 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 17 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 17? May 17 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 17? May 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 17? May 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 17 $12 +$20 +166%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 16? May 17 $1,980 +$19 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 16? May 17 $124 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 1h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 1h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 98¢ $121 1h
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $86 1h
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 98¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $24 21d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $1,956 21d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $99 21d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $65 21d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $1,980 21d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May BUY Yes 99¢ $1,980 21d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $1,980 21d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $960 21d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $52 21d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $969 21d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $204 21d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $1,980 21d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $1,980 23d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May BUY No 99¢ $297 23d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May BUY No 99¢ $239 23d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May BUY Yes 68¢ $22 23d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 24d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $99 24d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $11 24d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $31 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $1,980 24d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $1,288 24d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 24? BUY No 99¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.36 · official $333.36 (match) · 3500 history records