Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A1 0xa177…d3c1 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$381 (-16%) realized −$748 · open +$367

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%6W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-32.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-21.4%	-28.9%	30%	30%	-8.4%
≤30d	21	-25.1%	-32.3%	29%	29%	-9.3%
≤90d	21	-25.1%	-32.3%	29%	29%	-9.3%
all	21	-25.1%	-32.3%	29%	29%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.3%	29%	-9.3%
10%	-38.7%	29%	-18.0%
15%	-44.7%	29%	-25.9%
20%	-50.1%	29%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -75% → late +20% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$217 vs −$87 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$577

Realized−$748

Unrealized+$367

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses6 / 15

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage13d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jordan	41¢	90¢	$150	$329	+$179 (+120%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	50¢	$60	$247	+$188 (+313%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 17	$105	+$189	+181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 17	$63	−$60	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 17	$115	+$176	+153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 17	$180	+$253	+140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 17	$157	−$150	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 17	$74	−$70	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 17	$105	+$189	+181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$100	-96%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$204	+$337	+165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 17	$90	−$85	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$158	−$158	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 17	$132	−$125	-95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 17	$131	−$131	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 17	$104	−$100	-96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 17	$104	+$158	+152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 17	$131	−$125	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 17	$42	−$40	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-99%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$23	−$23	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$105	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$11	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$53	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$10	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$104	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$11	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$11	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$433	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$180	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$52	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$104	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$21	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$52	48m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$105	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	41¢	$153	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$90	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$105	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$27	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$106	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$26	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$105	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$104	4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$104	4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$204	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$27	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $576.77 · official $576.77 (match) · 53 history records