Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$5,152

7 days−$5,152

14 days−$5,152

30 days−$5,152

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$3,000	$3,184	+$184 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$500	$452	−$48 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$400	$354	−$46 (-12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$300	$281	−$19 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$300	$269	−$31 (-10%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$50	−$50 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$60	$45	−$15 (-25%)
Will Dion Beljo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$30	$15	−$15 (-50%)
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$100	$14	−$86 (-86%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Jun 10	$9,871	−$5,152	-52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 96% −$5,096

tech 3% −$117

economics 1% −$65

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$63	34h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$105	34h
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX'	BUY Yes	2¢	$105	34h
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX'	BUY Yes	2¢	$315	34h
Will Dion Beljo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$31	34h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	BUY Yes	5¢	$309	34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$520	34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$412	34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3,080	34h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$4,719	35h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$9,871	35d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-56.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-52.2%	-56.7%	0%	0%	-56.7%
≤30d	1	-52.2%	-56.7%	0%	0%	-56.7%
≤90d	1	-52.2%	-56.7%	0%	0%	-56.7%
all	1	-52.2%	-56.7%	0%	0%	-56.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-56.7%	0%	-56.7%
10% ← realistic here	-60.9%	0%	-60.9%
15%	-64.7%	0%	-64.7%
20%	-68.1%	0%	-68.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.