Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa173…3315 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,325 (+3%) realized +$12,170 · open +$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%81W / 52L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$2,174per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$55,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$3,554
14 days+$2,268
30 days+$3,828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$635
other 25% +$3,895
politics 7% +$1,033
crypto 6% +$4,573
sports 1% +$289
tech 0% +$487
finance 0% −$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.1% +2.3% 70% 30% -1.2%
≤30d 53 +15.6% +4.6% 60% 30% -6.9%
≤90d 133 +20.4% +9.0% 61% 35% -6.7%
all 133 +20.4% +9.0% 61% 35% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.0% 35% -6.7%
10% -1.5% 25% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -11.0% 17% -23.8%
20% -19.7% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,855) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$531 vs −$661 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$55,044
Realized+$12,170
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses81 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions41
Markets (closed)133 / 163
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$2,174
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $9,195 $9,248 +$53 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $8,990 $8,482 −$507 (-6%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $6,474 $6,487 +$14 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5,685 $5,134 −$552 (-10%)
Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 58¢ 90¢ $2,900 $4,475 +$1,575 (+54%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $3,423 $3,998 +$575 (+17%)
Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 73¢ 87¢ $1,613 $1,914 +$301 (+19%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 67¢ 61¢ $1,797 $1,640 −$157 (-9%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 78¢ 77¢ $1,522 $1,505 −$17 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 70¢ 60¢ $1,745 $1,487 −$258 (-15%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 44¢ 22¢ $2,437 $1,224 −$1,213 (-50%)
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $1,150 $1,050 −$100 (-9%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $881 $949 +$67 (+8%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 77¢ 84¢ $846 $915 +$68 (+8%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 76¢ 82¢ $831 $900 +$69 (+8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 42¢ $720 $747 +$27 (+4%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 42¢ $783 $518 −$265 (-34%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $481 $500 +$18 (+4%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 90¢ $435 $452 +$17 (+4%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 86¢ 87¢ $432 $434 +$2 (+0%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 54¢ 32¢ $704 $422 −$282 (-40%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $320 $382 +$62 (+20%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 25¢ 60¢ $151 $357 +$206 (+136%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 40¢ $516 $322 −$194 (-38%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $256 $283 +$26 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $971 +$28 +3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $1,982 +$18 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $1,984 +$16 +1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $11,828 +$9 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $150 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $18,810 −$19 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $80 +$23 +28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $2,870 +$3,492 +122%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $720 −$90 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $2,889 −$78 -3%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $4,801 +$199 +4%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $200 +$150 +75%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $4,242 −$1,832 -43%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,493 +$2 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $150 +$47 +31%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $13,550 +$100 +1%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $117 −$12 -10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $1,237 +$156 +13%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $598 +$32 +5%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $175 +$12 +7%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $51 +$49 +96%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $681 +$321 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $6,989 +$323 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $587 −$35 -6%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $230 +$75 +33%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,560 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $9,721 +$511 +5%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $600 −$18 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $154 +$28 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $35 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $236 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1,167 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 6? Jun 07 $10,552 +$2,919 +28%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $200 −$6 -3%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 05 $109 +$12 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $376 +$52 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8,292 +$52 +1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $110 −$3 -3%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 02 $2,053 −$2,053 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 02 $1,291 −$1,143 -89%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 02 $2,040 −$1,252 -61%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $686 −$613 -89%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $1,731 +$74 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $12,240 +$376 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $235 −$31 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats SELL Yes 6¢ $38 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 21¢ $94 2h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $240 2h
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 3h
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,275 22h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $360 28h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 29h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $4 29h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 30h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 31h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 31h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 32h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 33h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 34h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 35h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 35h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 35h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $10 36h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $8 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $720 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $308 36h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $12 36h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $1 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $108 36h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 4¢ $0 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,044.49 · official $55,044.48 (match) · 3500 history records