Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

A1 0xa16e…5b19 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,566 (-28%) realized −$2,882 · open +$1,316

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip

Net edge-69%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,406per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$4,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-67.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-64.2%	-67.6%	33%	0%	-76.9%
≤90d	3	-64.2%	-67.6%	33%	0%	-76.9%
all	3	-64.2%	-67.6%	33%	0%	-76.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-67.6%	0%	-76.9%
10%	-70.7%	0%	-79.1%
15%	-73.6%	0%	-81.2%
20%	-76.2%	0%	-83.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -74% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -64% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$802 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$4,785

Realized−$2,882

Unrealized+$1,316

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage8d

Avg bet$1,406

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	97¢	$3,469	$4,785	+$1,316 (+38%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$1,022	−$1,010	-99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$600	−$593	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$500	+$37	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$7	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$3,494	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$501	3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$521	3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$65	6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	56¢	$536	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	93¢	$500	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,785.29 · official $4,787.77 (match) · 8 history records