Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa16a…33a1
sports · 492 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$77,232 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$77,503 · open −$271
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$288
Realized+$77,503
Unrealized−$271
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses487 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions4
Markets (closed)488 / 492
Avg bet$4,513
Trades / day651.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 4 History 488 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,544
7 days+$77,503
14 days+$77,503
30 days+$77,503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Over 99¢ 50¢ $182 $92 −$90 (-49%)
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Under 99¢ 50¢ $182 $92 −$90 (-49%)
Set 2 Winner: Bielinska vs Mi Mi 99¢ 50¢ $182 $92 −$90 (-49%)
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Eom Jisung: 1+ goals Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 12 $161 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $190 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51,948 +$52 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $52,507 +$53 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $85 $0 +0%
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Dansby Swanson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Michael Busch: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Moisés Ballesteros: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $119,880 +$120 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
César Huerta: 1+ goals Jun 11 $1,608 +$16 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $88 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Natus Vincere (+6.5) Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs Natus Vincere (+9.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-12.5) vs Natus Vincere (+12.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $412 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as the next Director of Nati Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Derek Harvey as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Robert O’Brien as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Mike Waltz as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $124 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kash Patel as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Stacey Dixon as the next Director of National Inte Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $350 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $295 $0 +0%
Will the game go to extra innings?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York M Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $193 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$61,790
other 6% +$15,308
crypto 3% +$77
world 1% +$31
culture 1% +$18
tech 0% +$5
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $182 0m
Bielinska vs. Mi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $182 0m
Set 2 Winner: Bielinska vs Mi BUY Mi 99¢ $182 0m
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $31 14m
Eom Jisung: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $30 5h
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $105 5h
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 12, 12AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 5h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 11PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $161 6h
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 11PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 6h
HYPE Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $190 9h
Dansby Swanson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 11h
Ian Happ: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 11h
Michael Busch: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 11h
Moisés Ballesteros: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 11h
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 488 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 3% -6.4%
≤30d 488 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 3% -6.4%
≤90d 488 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 3% -6.4%
all 488 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 3% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover651.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 3% -6.4%
10% -9.9% 2% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.6% 2% -23.5%
20% -26.6% 2% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.02 · official $286.30 (match) · 3500 history records