Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa168…68d6 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%47W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$5
crypto 11% +$1
tech 2% +$1
sports 1% −$4
weather 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 57 -0.6% -10.1% 82% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses47 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage539d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Nov 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $5,280 −$5 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 16 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Feb 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Feb 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $9 60d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 61d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 92d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 99¢ $19 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 148d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $27 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $28 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 240d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $38 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $28 334d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 364d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.58 · official $64.58 (match) · 118 history records