Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A1 0xa167…b69a crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$138 (+4%) realized −$13 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days−$194
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 50% +$16
world 32% +$6
crypto 12% +$181
other 3% −$112
sports 3% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -43.3% -48.7% 29% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 7 -43.3% -48.7% 29% 0% -17.3%
≤90d 21 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 48% -10.0%
all 21 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 48% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 48% -10.0%
10% -10.9% 43% -18.6%
15% -19.5% 43% -26.4%
20% -27.4% 43% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$46 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage59d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $500 $511 +$11 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $100 −$11 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $932 +$78 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $933 −$62 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 21 $40 +$39 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 20 $46 +$45 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $41 +$40 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 19 $39 +$41 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 19 $2 +$2 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 19 $30 +$28 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 19 $39 +$36 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 19 $42 +$41 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 17 $45 +$43 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $500 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 30¢ $95 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $103 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 35¢ $9 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 36¢ $80 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $633 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $106 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 40¢ $100 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $500 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $871 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 89¢ $933 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 92¢ $932 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.65 · official $510.65 (match) · 224 history records