Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa167…4a0f other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+1%) realized +$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 104L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$7
politics 36% −$7
sports 10% +$98
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 115 +6.8% -3.4% 10% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 6% -9.0%
10% -12.6% 4% -17.7%
15% -21.1% 3% -25.7%
20% -28.8% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×30.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 104
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage138d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $138 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $137 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $158 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $147 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 27d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 30d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $156 30d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $156 31d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $123 32d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $123 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $144 34d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $144 34d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 35d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 35d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $141 35d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $141 36d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $134 36d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $134 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $138 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $138 37d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 38d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 38d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $138 38d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $138 39d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $153 39d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $153 39d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $151 39d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $151 40d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $124 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $124 41d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $148 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 312 history records