Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A1 0xa165…aab5 economics 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 147d

RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$308 (-76%) realized −$233 · open −$75

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$87 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage

Net worth$63

Realized−$233

Unrealized−$75

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage147d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$45	$31	−$14 (-31%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$58	$15	−$44 (-75%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$25	$12	−$12 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 28	$211	−$210	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 27	$40	−$40	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 21	$12	−$12	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$7	3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$29	39h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	39h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	39h
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$50	139d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$20	140d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$25	140d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$37	141d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$87	141d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$12	147d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$12	147d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$20	147d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.94 · official $62.94 (match) · 16 history records