Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa163…6306 crypto 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$460 (-10%) realized −$429 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%48W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$153
14 days−$153
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$398
world 12% +$117
other 9% −$172
politics 7% −$178
tech 4% +$75
economics 2% −$90
sports 1% −$2
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 40% -25.5%
≤30d 15 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 40% -25.5%
≤90d 65 -76.6% -78.8% 11% 9% -61.1%
all 186 -37.6% -43.5% 26% 24% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 24% -22.2%
10% -48.9% 18% -29.7%
15% -53.8% 15% -36.5%
20% -58.4% 11% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$429
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses48 / 138
Open positions12
Markets (closed)186 / 198
History coverage483d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? Yes 82¢ 70¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-50%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will STRC market cap hit $16B by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-92%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $127 −$124 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $113 −$105 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $156 +$50 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 27? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US recession in 2025? Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12PM ET Apr 03 $9 −$9 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Apr 03 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Apr 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Starmer out in 2025? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 03 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 27? Apr 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by December 31? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 27? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 16-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 56m
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 56m
Will STRC market cap hit $16B by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 57m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 57m
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 7¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.95 · official $44.95 (match) · 617 history records