Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa163…ce0a
sports · 188 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,636 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,641 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$1,641
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses108 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 188
History coverage134d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 187 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$251
14 days+$775
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 82¢ 90¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $261 $0 −$261 (-100%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Kai Havertz: Anytime Goalscorer No 81¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) paiN 72¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-17? No 66¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 68¢ 0¢ $271 $0 −$271 (-100%)
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Independiente del Valle vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 4.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $234 $0 −$234 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Barra FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 34¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 43¢ 0¢ $178 $0 −$178 (-100%)
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Diana Shnaider vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$11 +51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $17 +$9 +51%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$17 +34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $77 −$77 -100%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $182 −$180 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $156 −$150 -96%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 08 $172 −$13 -8%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $233 +$128 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $402 −$347 -86%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $285 +$118 +41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $406 −$393 -97%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 07 $307 +$99 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $158 +$51 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $197 +$60 +31%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $125 +$71 +57%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $421 +$260 +62%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $271 +$150 +55%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $181 −$178 -98%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $271 +$220 +81%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $345 +$113 +33%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $297 +$212 +71%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $460 +$182 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $525 +$15 +3%
Diana Shnaider vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $300 +$152 +51%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $152 −$150 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $290 +$162 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $165 −$163 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $499 −$492 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $154 −$151 -98%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $232 +$123 +53%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $203 +$97 +48%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $168 +$147 +88%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $203 −$84 -41%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $184 +$186 +101%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $233 +$217 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) May 31 $315 +$118 +38%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 0.5 May 31 $201 +$114 +57%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to Score May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $186 −$94 -51%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 31 $148 +$38 +26%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 30 $151 +$55 +36%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Both Teams to Score May 30 $338 +$113 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$1,248
other 13% −$177
crypto 3% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 11h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 14h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $12 19h
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) BUY paiN 72¢ $71 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $69 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $53 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 3d
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $182 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 3d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 SELL Yes 55¢ $159 3d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $172 3d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $362 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 65% -15.7%
≤30d 72 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 60% -8.9%
≤90d 156 -14.6% -22.8% 53% 51% -20.8%
all 187 -6.3% -15.3% 58% 55% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 55% -13.6%
10% -23.4% 50% -21.9%
15% -30.8% 39% -29.4%
20% -37.6% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.18 · official $55.18 (match) · 384 history records