Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa161…6d70
crypto · 16 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $183 −$49 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $355 +$104 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$43 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$61 +588%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$16
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 19¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +28.8% +16.6% 50% 50% -11.1%
≤30d 14 +28.8% +16.6% 50% 50% -11.1%
≤90d 14 +28.8% +16.6% 50% 50% -11.1%
all 14 +28.8% +16.6% 50% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.6% 50% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here +5.4% 50% -19.6%
15% -4.8% 36% -27.4%
20% -14.1% 21% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.29 · official $25.29 (match) · 42 history records