Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa15f…1d6f other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+3%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$6
crypto 29% −$11
sports 27% +$5
world 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 29% -34.1%
≤30d 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 29% -34.1%
≤90d 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 29% -34.1%
all 7 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 29% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 29% -34.1%
10% -45.5% 29% -40.4%
15% -50.7% 29% -46.2%
20% -55.6% 29% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records