Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa15f…2f24 other 278 markets active 0h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$525 (-5%) realized −$521 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%109W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$28
14 days+$68
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$308
culture 27% +$210
crypto 8% −$145
sports 8% −$67
world 3% −$225
politics 2% −$16
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.6% -6.3% 57% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 51 +9.6% -0.8% 57% 51% +2.3%
≤90d 51 +9.6% -0.8% 57% 51% +2.3%
all 273 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 33% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 33% -14.6%
10% -20.7% 28% -22.8%
15% -28.4% 22% -30.2%
20% -35.4% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$521
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses109 / 164
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)273 / 278
History coverage221d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Yes 23¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $4 +$5 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 +$6 +163%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$10 +104%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $23 −$5 -22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +86%
Rio Open: Jaime Faria vs Sebastian Baez Jun 14 $7 −$4 -63%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 14 $17 +$4 +21%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Jun 14 $19 +$19 +99%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 14 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $15 −$11 -74%
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$2 +35%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +125%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$2 +64%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 +$2 +65%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $34 −$12 -36%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $25 +$21 +81%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 +$12 +246%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $4 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 84¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $3 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $5 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 3h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 3h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $3 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $4 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $5 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 67¢ $5 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 54¢ $5 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $4 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $4 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 36¢ $3 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 27¢ $18 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $4 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 30¢ $6 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 33¢ $23 26h
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 17¢ $2 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 16¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.02 · official $19.59 (match) · 1693 history records