Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa15e…b53b
crypto · 43 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$413 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$458 · open +$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$195
Realized−$458
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage176d
Avg bet$431
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $150 $195 +$45 (+30%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 53¢ 0¢ $1,116 $0 −$1,116 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$45 -50%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? Jun 11 $110 +$140 +127%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 22 $77 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 22 $37 +$29 +79%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,370 −$1,116 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? Apr 07 $276 +$296 +107%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 07 $68 +$4 +5%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $455 +$4 +1%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026? Apr 02 $440 +$10 +2%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $492 +$8 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,562 +$502 +32%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Apr 01 $225 −$150 -66%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? Mar 29 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 28 $168 −$63 -37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 27 $210 −$30 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 27 $103 −$69 -67%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $220 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Mar 27 $484 −$484 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Mar 27 $127 −$121 -95%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Mar 27 $162 +$32 +20%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 27 $246 −$150 -61%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 202 Mar 26 $575 +$37 +6%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026? Mar 26 $706 +$44 +6%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? Mar 26 $753 +$37 +5%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $264 +$4 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 25 $7,320 +$255 +4%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Mar 23 $77 +$12 +16%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 21 $1,045 +$113 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 18? Mar 18 $120 +$130 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $35 +$89 +256%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Jan 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Solana reach $160 in January? Jan 14 $171 +$39 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 27 $4 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 27 $8 +$4 +49%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 24 $43 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 24 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3PM ET Dec 24 $29 +$21 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Dec 22 $30 +$20 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 22 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $12 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$212
world 31% +$120
finance 14% +$672
sports 8% −$1,071
crypto 6% −$346
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $39 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 2h
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? SELL No 44¢ $79 22d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 44¢ $107 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? BUY No 44¢ $3 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? BUY No 43¢ $1 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? BUY No 43¢ $76 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? BUY No 56¢ $29 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? BUY No 56¢ $5 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? BUY No 56¢ $3 33d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 21¢ $103 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 49¢ $490 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 50¢ $254 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 45¢ $54 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 45¢ $2 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 45¢ $168 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 45¢ $1 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 59¢ $65 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 59¢ $52 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 59¢ $60 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 71¢ $71 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 75¢ $75 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 78¢ $78 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? SELL Yes 72¢ $115 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? SELL Yes 72¢ $60 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? SELL Yes 72¢ $110 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +38.6% +25.4% 50% 50% +33.4%
≤30d 4 +39.5% +26.2% 75% 50% +26.7%
≤90d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 66% 28% -12.1%
all 42 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 33% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 33% -11.8%
10% -15.7% 24% -20.2%
15% -23.9% 19% -28.0%
20% -31.3% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.71 · official $194.71 (match) · 359 history records