Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:54:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa15c…2c27 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,278 (+5%) realized +$5,823 · open +$455
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$2,751per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$372est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$4,513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$620
7 days+$3,264
14 days+$1,303
30 days+$5,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$4,657
other 31% +$2,459
crypto 2% −$999
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.3% -13.4% 74% 26% -5.8%
≤30d 36 -21.2% -28.7% 56% 19% -5.1%
≤90d 48 -20.5% -28.1% 58% 21% -5.7%
all 48 -20.5% -28.1% 58% 21% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.1% 21% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 12% -14.7%
15% -41.2% 6% -23.0%
20% -47.0% 2% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,134) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$551 vs −$488 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$4,513
Realized+$5,823
Unrealized+$455
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$372
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage50d
Avg bet$2,751
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $2,784 $3,198 +$414 (+15%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 100¢ $1,273 $1,314 +$41 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2,858 +$620 +22%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $4,134 +$257 +6%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9,459 +$605 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7,403 +$207 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,072 +$215 +20%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2,560 +$159 +6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $7,829 +$1,658 +21%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $7,270 +$291 +4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $8,318 +$1,771 +21%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $95 +$24 +26%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $630 −$280 -44%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $844 −$590 -70%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $6,939 +$658 +10%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $8,194 +$241 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,358 +$318 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $427 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2,689 +$133 +5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $1,267 −$844 -67%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $3,449 −$2,178 -63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,281 +$711 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,347 −$2,063 -62%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $12,992 +$1,124 +9%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $416 −$183 -44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2,346 −$1,550 -66%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2,208 +$187 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,006 +$197 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,101 +$3,892 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $29 −$21 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $22 −$11 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $14 −$12 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $20 −$17 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $21 −$17 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $23 −$16 -67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1,751 +$165 +9%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $1,106 −$873 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri May 22 $101 +$32 +31%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $101 −$53 -53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5,304 +$1,218 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $934 −$934 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 13 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $803 +$27 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $438 +$11 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $599 +$214 +36%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $8,446 +$476 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $309 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $213 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $752 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,795 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,858 26h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,392 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $39 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,883 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,835 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $210 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $166 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10,064 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $8,195 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $352 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $911 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,287 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $57 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $27 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $70 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $7,210 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,719 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,072 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9,486 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $6 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $7,823 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $17 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $98 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2,404 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,512.73 · official $4,512.73 (match) · 188 history records