Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa15a…8f21 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+7%) realized +$4 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$22
sports 28% +$7
other 26% −$15
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.6% -20.1% 31% 29% -44.5%
≤30d 35 -11.6% -20.1% 31% 29% -44.5%
≤90d 35 -11.6% -20.1% 31% 29% -44.5%
all 35 -11.6% -20.1% 31% 29% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 29% -44.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 29% -49.8%
15% -34.7% 26% -54.7%
20% -41.1% 20% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 36¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+204%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +298%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +209%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +478%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.04 · official $3.54 (match) · 62 history records