Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa159…599d world 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%37W / 73L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$15
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$38
other 19% −$8
politics 11% $0
sports 10% +$4
finance 4% +$2
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.4% +4.4% 18% 9% -7.4%
≤30d 32 +131.4% +109.4% 34% 16% -7.5%
≤90d 74 +56.0% +41.1% 30% 8% -8.4%
all 110 +37.8% +24.7% 34% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.7% 8% -8.6%
10% +12.7% 7% -17.3%
15% +1.8% 5% -25.3%
20% -8.1% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses37 / 73
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage522d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $129 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $12 +$21 +178%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $105 −$4 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $131 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $172 +$6 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $7 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $76 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $27 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $51 +$10 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $46 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $93 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $44 −$5 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $29 +$7 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $173 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $41 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $10 −$1 -11%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $83 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $76 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $76 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $76 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $76 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $76 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $42 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.39 · official $0.00 · 430 history records