Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa158…1c1b
politics · 281 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses78 / 186
Open positions18
Markets (closed)264 / 281
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day658.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 18 History 264 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 12 $0 $0 -8%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% +$3
other 27% −$1
culture 8% −$1
world 7% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $2 20m
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1 21m
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 21m
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 21m
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 21m
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 21m
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 21m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $0 21m
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 22m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $0 22m
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 22m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $2 22m
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $2 22m
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 264 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 264 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 264 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover658.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.40 · official $8.37 · 3500 history records