Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A1 0xa156…8cc1 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-43%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$2
crypto 26% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -58.1%
≤30d 4 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -58.1%
≤90d 4 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -58.1%
all 4 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 50% -58.1%
10% -44.9% 50% -62.1%
15% -50.2% 25% -65.7%
20% -55.1% 0% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.29 · official $2.29 (match) · 7 history records