Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa14d…48bc other 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$685 (-7%) realized −$684 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%77W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$528
politics 5% −$92
world 3% +$13
crypto 2% −$30
sports 1% −$62
economics 0% +$18
tech 0% −$11
weather 0% +$11
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +175.9% +149.6% 67% 67% +0.4%
≤30d 12 +175.9% +149.6% 67% 67% +0.4%
≤90d 12 +175.9% +149.6% 67% 67% +0.4%
all 152 -1.6% -11.0% 51% 35% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 35% -15.7%
10% -19.5% 22% -23.8%
15% -27.3% 21% -31.1%
20% -34.4% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$684
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses77 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)152 / 155
History coverage514d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 02 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thailand next strike Cambodia on December 9? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza before July? Jan 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Thailand next strike Cambodia on December 10? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 02 $1 +$1 +126%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jan 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July? Jan 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20? Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? Jan 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Jan 02 $20 −$10 -50%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jan 02 $95 −$95 -100%
Starmer out before July? Jan 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 02 $464 −$320 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $411 −$411 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 01 $422 −$11 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 01 $358 +$64 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $485 −$118 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $342 −$24 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $121 +$37 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $119 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 29 $502 +$38 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 28 $316 +$26 +8%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 27 $112 +$7 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $941 −$46 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $145 +$31 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $1,011 +$43 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $135 +$10 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 25 $125 +$11 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $250 +$32 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $250 +$13 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $500 +$30 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $58 +$37 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $500 +$30 +6%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 16 $497 +$32 +6%
Joe Biden book deal in 2025? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 31h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $10 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 31h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $411 169d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL No 88¢ $411 169d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $422 169d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL No 98¢ $422 169d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $358 171d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 SELL Yes 100¢ $357 171d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY Yes 95¢ $10 171d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 SELL No 6¢ $10 171d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY Yes 92¢ $318 171d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $318 171d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY Yes 59¢ $144 171d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 SELL No 41¢ $144 171d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 85¢ $158 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.68 · official $107.68 (match) · 352 history records