Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa14c…23a1 sports 474 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,541 (-1%) realized −$5,972 · open +$1,431
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%250W / 221L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$810per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$4,496est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,742
7 days+$2,674
14 days−$2,653
30 days+$3,534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,058
other 0% −$508
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 59% +13.9%
≤30d 216 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 55% -7.5%
≤90d 471 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% -11.0%
all 471 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 53% -11.0%
10% -20.1% 50% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -27.8% 43% -27.3%
20% -34.9% 34% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,029) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$575 vs −$678 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$3,680
Realized−$5,972
Unrealized+$1,431
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses250 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$4,496
Open positions3
Markets (closed)471 / 474
History coverage55d
Avg bet$810
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 69¢ 100¢ $1,359 $1,969 +$610 (+45%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Nigma Galaxy 34¢ 100¢ $336 $975 +$639 (+190%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 70¢ 93¢ $554 $737 +$183 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $848 +$472 +56%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1,355 +$518 +38%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1,181 +$314 +27%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $1,074 +$539 +50%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $380 −$379 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $411 +$468 +114%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $196 −$191 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,257 +$628 +50%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $396 +$463 +117%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $484 −$477 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $562 +$526 +94%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $397 +$428 +108%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $304 −$299 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $828 +$340 +41%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $360 −$355 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $261 −$257 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $67 −$66 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $422 −$416 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $328 −$319 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,259 +$597 +47%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $843 +$435 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2,348 +$1,210 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $732 +$789 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,549 −$2,523 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $456 −$446 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,534 −$1,493 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $381 −$375 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $439 +$349 +79%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $284 −$279 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $460 −$450 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,388 +$391 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,113 +$301 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,660 +$665 +25%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,175 −$3,164 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $415 −$400 -96%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $480 +$152 +32%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $498 −$489 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,419 +$945 +67%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,279 +$1,047 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,338 −$1,319 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $543 −$535 -99%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $47 +$149 +317%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,501 +$1,225 +49%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $827 −$811 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $559 −$549 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $468 +$458 +98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,609 +$651 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,648 +$554 +34%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $440 −$435 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,344 +$758 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 70¢ $526 21m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $33 22m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $417 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 70¢ $278 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 70¢ $158 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $489 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $0 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $53 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $54 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 35¢ $148 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $87 3h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 63¢ $325 25h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 65¢ $61 25h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 65¢ $7 25h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 65¢ $153 25h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 64¢ $297 25h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 63¢ $6 25h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 71¢ $430 26h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 74¢ $288 26h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 71¢ $138 26h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 72¢ $499 26h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $3 28h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $24 28h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $49 28h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $12 28h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $155 28h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $117 28h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 61¢ $19 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,680.50 · official $3,680.50 (match) · 1962 history records