trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $19 | $20 | +$1 (+8%) |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 | Over | 93¢ | 92¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? | Jun 06 | $19 | +$1 | +8% |
| RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 5.5 | Jun 06 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control | May 23 | $74 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? | May 23 | $1,224 | −$6 | -0% |
| Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5) | May 23 | $12 | +$1 | +7% |
| Spurs vs. Bucks | Mar 30 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Jazz vs. Suns | Mar 30 | $15 | +$2 | +10% |
| Oklahoma Sooners vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (W) | Mar 30 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28? | Mar 30 | $138 | −$138 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? | Mar 28 | $111 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti | Mar 28 | $29 | −$3 | -12% |
| Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con | Mar 28 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $1,265 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this el | Mar 28 | $1,114 | −$5 | -0% |
| Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Mar 28 | $1,145 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Mar 28 | $1,228 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 28 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial | Mar 28 | $1,120 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $39 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Mar 28 | $31 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Mar 28 | $47 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Robert Lebovics be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jerse | Mar 28 | $1,194 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Mar 28 | $1,133 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Mar 28 | $1,212 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on | Mar 28 | $37 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Mar 28 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | +4.1% | -5.8% | 80% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 35% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 26 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 35% | 0% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.6% | 0% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -21.0% | 0% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -28.6% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -34.2% |