Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa146…f40e crypto 812 markets active 4h ago coverage 131d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%522W / 365L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$248
7 days−$260
14 days−$260
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$287
other 0% −$4
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -75.3% -77.7% 10% 7% -86.4%
≤30d 108 -75.3% -77.7% 10% 7% -86.4%
≤90d 110 -74.5% -77.0% 11% 8% -84.7%
all 887 -13.9% -22.1% 59% 31% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 31% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 20% -19.5%
15% -36.4% 13% -27.3%
20% -42.6% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses522 / 365
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)887 / 812
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 887 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Falcons vs. Saints Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on December 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 7AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 19, 5AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 3AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on December 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.94 · official $6.94 (match) · 3500 history records