Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa144…acdc other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% $0
world 31% +$5
politics 10% +$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.8% -12.0% 40% 20% -5.6%
≤30d 6 -10.0% -18.5% 33% 17% -6.2%
≤90d 7 -8.5% -17.2% 43% 14% -6.9%
all 36 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -8.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -17.0%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage474d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $41 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -28%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$6 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $2 −$1 -46%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 18 $16 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 07 $14 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 11 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1 $0 -11%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 28 $15 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $1 $0 +5%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 12 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $10 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $24 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 33d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 190d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 345d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 96¢ $5 363d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL No 95¢ $8 365d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship SELL Yes 2¢ $0 372d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship SELL Yes 2¢ $0 372d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship SELL Yes 2¢ $0 372d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship SELL Yes 2¢ $1 372d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.88 · official $33.88 (match) · 132 history records