Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa142…3ea5 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+11%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$8
crypto 40% $0
other 19% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +68.6% +52.5% 50% 50% +15.9%
≤30d 2 +68.6% +52.5% 50% 50% +15.9%
≤90d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 44% 44% +1.8%
all 9 +2.1% -7.6% 44% 44% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 44% +1.8%
10% -16.4% 44% -7.9%
15% -24.5% 22% -16.8%
20% -31.9% 22% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage89d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 20¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 18 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 18 $1 +$1 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.72 · official $8.72 (match) · 21 history records