Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa142…3a73 crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%107W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$22
14 days−$26
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -5.4% -14.4% 67% 62% -2.5%
≤30d 176 -5.1% -14.2% 60% 55% -8.0%
≤90d 201 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 48% -12.1%
all 201 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 48% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 36% -20.5%
15% -30.3% 26% -28.2%
20% -37.2% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses107 / 94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage40d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$9 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$9 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$18 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$22 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$53 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$8 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$13 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $14 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2054 history records