Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A1 0xa141…d1e5 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,107 (+34%) realized +$1,107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%42W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% $0
crypto 28% +$15
tech 22% +$1,092
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 2% -8.0%
≤90d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 2% -8.0%
all 45 +3.5% -6.3% 93% 4% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 4% +21.7%
10% -15.3% 4% +10.1%
15% -23.5% 4% -0.6%
20% -31.0% 4% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$4 · ×6.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×90.41 per $1 lost it wins $90.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$1,107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses42 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage139d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 11? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 04 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 29? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 26? May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 26 $25 +$25 +100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 21? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 21? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 18? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 18? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 27? Feb 04 $1 $0 +0%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 3? Feb 04 $728 +$1,092 +150%
Will Robert Whittaker be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, Jan 27 $1,615 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 18d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.66 · official $47.66 (match) · 93 history records