Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa140…f2ce other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%45W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$18
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$4
other 30% $0
politics 25% +$2
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% −$17
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 2% -9.9%
all 124 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses45 / 79
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage467d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $89 −$3 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $181 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $89 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $84 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $95 −$11 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $92 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $101 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $103 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $95 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $96 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $100 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $81 +$13 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $91 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $774 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $35 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $40 −$17 -43%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $616 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $2 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Jul 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 19 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $86 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $78 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $78 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $86 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $89 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $69 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $88 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $98 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $98 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $89 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $89 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $54 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $89 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $98 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $46 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $38 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $84 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $101 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $101 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $101 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.09 · official $85.77 (match) · 448 history records