Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa13e…242a other 73 markets active 6d ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$13
other 15% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -1.8% -11.1% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage621d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Justin Jefferson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will '360' win Record of the Year? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
GOP wins popular vote by 2.0-2.25%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Texas A&M win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden fined over 100k in gun case? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win the NFC East? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC south? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will the match between England and Ireland end in a draw? Nov 17 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 5d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 16d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $49 31d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 31d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 34d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 34d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 59d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 60d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $50 65d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $50 65d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 76d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 77d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $50 79d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $50 80d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 89d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 90d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 91d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 92d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $50 93d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $50 93d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $50 95d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $50 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 99¢ $50 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $50 100d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $50 101d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $50 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records