Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa13d…152d other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-29%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$25
14 days+$31
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$28
sports 24% −$14
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +58.8% +43.7% 50% 50% +64.6%
≤30d 8 +29.9% +17.5% 50% 50% +29.3%
≤90d 16 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 38% -12.4%
all 47 -31.2% -37.8% 34% 34% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 34% -25.7%
10% -43.7% 30% -32.8%
15% -49.2% 30% -39.3%
20% -54.1% 28% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage140d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $5 +$5 +90%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $6 +$2 +33%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $5 +$3 +55%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $10 +$8 +78%
Germany vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-28? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-28? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Newcastle United FC? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $5 +$9 +173%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $5 +$1 +18%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs New Zealand Feb 26 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $20 +$14 +70%
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 11 $20 −$4 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 43¢ $10 29d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 30¢ $5 30d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 30d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 37¢ $1 72d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 40¢ $1 82d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki BUY Chennai Super Kings 42¢ $2 85d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 47¢ $5 86d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 2¢ $1 87d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings SELL Chennai Super Kings 55¢ $8 87d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 34¢ $5 87d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 74¢ $8 88d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 47¢ $5 88d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 26¢ $1 90d
Will France win on 2026-03-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 91d
Germany vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $2 92d
Will France win on 2026-03-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 92d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 2¢ $1 92d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 42¢ $5 93d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 93d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records