Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

A1 0xa13d…e838 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$116 (-33%) realized −$116 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%3W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$34

7 days+$34

14 days+$34

30 days+$34

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-54.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-12.4%	-20.8%	27%	27%	+65.9%
≤30d	11	-12.4%	-20.8%	27%	27%	+65.9%
≤90d	11	-12.4%	-20.8%	27%	27%	+65.9%
all	21	-49.4%	-54.2%	14%	14%	-43.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.2%	14%	-43.6%
10%	-58.6%	14%	-49.0%
15%	-62.6%	14%	-53.9%
20%	-66.3%	14%	-58.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +83% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -90% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.31 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage

Net worth$56

Realized−$116

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses3 / 18

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage153d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	92¢	92¢	$56	$56	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$5	+246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Jun 15	$13	+$7	+52%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$10	+$37	+365%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Feb 04	$7	−$7	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Feb 04	$9	−$9	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Feb 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Feb 04	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Feb 04	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Feb 04	$20	−$20	-99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In	Jan 29	$47	−$47	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Jan 28	$1	−$1	-100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In	Jan 28	$47	−$47	-100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Jan 28	$108	−$1	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$56	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$1	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$1	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$1	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$1	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$1	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$1	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$1	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	SELL Down	41¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	SELL Down	74¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$10	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	100¢	$47	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$10	13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	20h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$7	130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$9	130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$10	130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$1	130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$20	130d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In	BUY Liquid	44¢	$47	136d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.70 · official $55.70 (match) · 39 history records