Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa13b…1d3a
crypto · 203 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$182 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$179 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses69 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)198 / 203
History coverage235d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 5 History 198 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
OpenAI browser by October 24? No 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 2 FC Bayern München? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +650%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 02 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 02 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 02 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 01 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 01 $3 +$4 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 01 $3 +$10 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 01 $1 +$2 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 01 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 01 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$157
sports 1% −$9
other 1% −$7
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 8h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +48.5% +34.4% 33% 33% +36.7%
≤30d 6 +48.5% +34.4% 33% 33% +36.7%
≤90d 189 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 34% -21.1%
all 198 -16.2% -24.2% 35% 33% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 33% -23.2%
10% -31.5% 30% -30.5%
15% -38.1% 27% -37.2%
20% -44.2% 22% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 317 history records