Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A1 0xa138…dfbb sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate61%39W / 25L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$2
other 25% +$17
crypto 4% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 64 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 2% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 2% -17.8%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.8 per $1 lost it wins $4.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses39 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage552d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Amazon dip to $132 in April? May 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Amazon reach $296 in March? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of January? Feb 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $880 in January? Feb 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November? Dec 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? Nov 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 18 $17 +$17 +100%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 06 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1,456 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Mar 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in March? Mar 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $720 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21 Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will ETHBTC be more than .033 on February 7? Feb 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 21 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 11 $2 $0 +1%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Dec 20 $12 $0 -0%
Utah vs. Wild Dec 20 $15 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Heat Dec 20 $27 $0 +1%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 20 $25 $0 +2%
Rangers vs. Stars Dec 20 $12 $0 -0%
Senators vs. Flames Dec 19 $13 $0 -0%
Blues vs. Lightning Dec 19 $3 $0 -1%
Blues vs. Panthers Dec 19 $23 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Flyers Dec 19 $8 $0 -2%
Giants vs. Falcons Dec 19 $6 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Kings Dec 19 $2 $0 -0%
Canucks vs. Utah Dec 18 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 26d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $28 28d
Will Amazon dip to $132 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 59d
Will Amazon reach $296 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 92d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 145d
Will Meta reach $880 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 148d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 206d
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 242d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY No 50¢ $17 280d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $1 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $3 331d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 362d
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 391d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 391d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 391d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
XRP all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 422d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 423d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 430d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $718 447d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $719 447d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $725 447d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $726 447d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $729 447d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $730 447d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1 447d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1 447d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $720 447d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $720 447d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.43 · official $28.43 (match) · 153 history records