Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa135…68b8 other 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-0%) realized −$794 · open +$688
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%96W / 155L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$356
14 days−$224
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$965
crypto 32% −$571
sports 10% +$111
finance 2% −$80
world 2% −$143
economics 1% −$210
politics 0% −$19
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +20.9% +9.4% 54% 52% +6.9%
≤30d 107 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 39% -18.0%
≤90d 121 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 40% -8.2%
all 251 -15.3% -23.3% 38% 32% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 32% -12.3%
10% -30.7% 26% -20.7%
15% -37.4% 23% -28.4%
20% -43.5% 19% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$30 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$3,211
Realized−$794
Unrealized+$688
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses96 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions44
Markets (closed)251 / 295
History coverage629d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,439 $1,862 +$424 (+29%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $124 $406 +$281 (+227%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $51 $80 +$29 (+57%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $68 $79 +$11 (+16%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 85¢ 82¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? No 90¢ 90¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? No 91¢ 90¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 90¢ 90¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? No 58¢ 58¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? No 89¢ 88¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 40¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Norway leading at halftime? No 68¢ 67¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Senegal 80¢ 80¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-23%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? No 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 65¢ 64¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 62¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 57¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $38 +$18 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 +$18 +152%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 +$42 +596%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$29 +188%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $37 +$4 +11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $16 +$11 +70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$9 +65%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $15 +$14 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $47 +$6 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $15 +$9 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $18 +$5 +29%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $17 +$34 +197%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $33 +$7 +22%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$9 +86%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $16 +$8 +50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 +$9 +79%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $44 +$5 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$10 +76%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $47 +$6 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 −$7 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$6 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $24 −$24 -99%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$10 +68%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 +$83 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $60 +$66 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $49 +$60 +124%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $203 +$7 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$103 +344%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $14 +$91 +650%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 90¢ $39 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $9 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $9 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $13 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 90¢ $44 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $10 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $16 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $18 10h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY No 68¢ $20 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 89¢ $37 10h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $12 10h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $12 10h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 65¢ $16 10h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $12 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $13 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $14 17h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 60¢ $14 17h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 85¢ $39 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $8 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $13 17h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 91¢ $45 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,210.62 · official $3,210.61 (match) · 945 history records