Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa12f…e012 crypto 658 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,962 (-6%) realized −$1,963 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate70%458W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$116
14 days−$227
30 days−$1,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,696
sports 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -4.4% -13.5% 82% 15% -11.2%
≤30d 482 -11.6% -20.0% 73% 20% -15.0%
≤90d 656 -11.8% -20.2% 70% 23% -16.7%
all 656 -11.8% -20.2% 70% 23% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 23% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 19% -24.7%
15% -34.8% 13% -32.0%
20% -41.2% 9% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$43 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$1,963
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses458 / 198
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)656 / 658
History coverage69d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 87¢ 98¢ $153 $172 +$19 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 75¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Down 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $107 −$105 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$15 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$19 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $300 +$89 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $85 −$68 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $277 −$31 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $225 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $64 +$90 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $36 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.01 · official $181.98 · 2802 history records