Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A1 0xa12c…b9ec sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$68 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%80W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$2,480
14 days−$2,480
30 days−$2,480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$257
sports 38% +$363
economics 2% −$106
world 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -72.2% -74.9% 14% 12% -78.4%
≤30d 88 -72.2% -74.9% 14% 12% -78.4%
≤90d 88 -72.2% -74.9% 14% 12% -78.4%
all 164 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 48% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 48% -8.6%
10% -9.7% 48% -17.3%
15% -18.4% 46% -25.3%
20% -26.4% 46% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +98% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$36 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses80 / 84
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)164 / 168
History coverage138d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 32¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$30 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$16 +156%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$17 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$9 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 −$77 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-03-02? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-07? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$28 +142%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-16? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Valencia CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-23? Jun 14 $20 −$11 -53%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-02-08? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-01? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Kuopion PS win on 2026-02-19? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-22? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 +$18 +52%
AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-28? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-03? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spezia Calcio win on 2026-02-07? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-08? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Gaziantep FK vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$7 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $25 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $15 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $33 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $22 15h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $36 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $54 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $42 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $36 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $46 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $51 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $14 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $25 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $74 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $84 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.36 · official $107.36 (match) · 377 history records