Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa128…31e1 other 48 markets active 11d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-26%) realized −$2 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$13
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions46
Markets (closed)2 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+221%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.59 · official $34.60 (match) · 59 history records