Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa127…384c other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$7
other 24% $0
politics 11% $0
economics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 14% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 14% 0% -11.9%
all 36 -3.8% -13.0% 33% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.9%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage484d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $51 −$5 -9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $2 −$1 -38%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $34 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $41 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $8 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 8d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 345d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 345d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records